The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

por Tanmay Kurtkoti
InversionesNoticias de negocios
Temporada 2
S2EP74 | The Foreigner Bought ₹1,355 Crore. The Hedge Stayed On. Tuesday We Settle | 6th July Monday
Wall Street was dark on Friday, so India closed the week on its own, green for a third straight day and above 24,200 for the first time this move: Nifty 24,270.85, with the fear gauge down at 11.83. But the real story sits under the tape. On Friday the foreign desk flipped to a net buyer, ₹1,355 crore in cash, and trimmed its index-futures short again. Yet it stayed net long 5,47,349 stock futures while holding a short-index, long-put book. It bought the market and kept the seatbelt on. Inside: the full Pro, FII and Client positioning, the exact option book, the open-interest map into Tuesday's expiry, and the levels that matter, 24,000 the anchor, 24,300 the gear-change, 24,500 the ceiling. POV: buy the dips, respect 24,200, keep a cheap hedge. Educational, not investment advice.
T2 · E74
6 jul 2026
7:52
S2EP73 | The Jobs Number Was Weak. The First Move Was Relief. And Today, America Is Shut | 3rd July Friday
America added just 57,000 jobs in June against 115,000 expected, with the two prior months revised down another 74,000. The first reflex on Wall Street wasn't fear but relief: bond yields fell, bets on another rate hike got cut, and the Dow poked a fresh record, though the move stayed choppy. Episode 73 unpacks that reflex: the reaction function, or why a weak jobs report can be greeted with relief when what the market fears most is the central bank staying tough. Plus the setup for a Friday like no other this week, with US markets closed for Independence Day, so India trades its own tape. What's inside: - The June US jobs report: 57,000 added, unemployment 4.2 percent, but for the wrong reason - Why a soft number brought relief instead of fear, and the honest catch that stops you misusing it - India's Thursday close: Nifty 24,175.70, Sensex 77,502.12, both holding above the line - The IT snap-back: the sector went from worst to first, Infosys up 5 percent, but it is only 1 day - Flows: domestic funds buying (about 1,784 crore), foreign selling drying up (about 312 crore, and net buyers on the NSE alone) - The rupee near a record low, a softer dollar, and what could give it relief - 24,000 as support, 24,200 as the near lid, and why IT is the tell today - The week ahead: Nifty's Tuesday settlement and TCS opening earnings season Levels close (NSE / BSE, 02-Jul): Nifty 50 24,175.70 (+0.71%), Sensex 77,502.12 (+0.75%). Nifty IT +3.6%. India VIX 12.21 (down about 8%). Stream free on rupeecase.com. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. This is educational content, not investment advice. HASHTAGS #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #JobsReport #StockMarket #IT #RupeeCase #PreMarket #Trading #Rupee LINKS Stream: https://rupeecase.com Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube @TanmayKurtkoti
T2 · E73
3 jul 2026
8:49
S2EP72 | A Gap-Up Into Expiry Day: 24,000 Is the Floor, and the Jobs Report Waits for Tonight | 2nd July Thursday
The Nifty reclaimed 24,000 at 24,006 — and this morning GIFT is pointing to a gap-up open near 24,150, a clear 150 points above the level that broke last week. But today stacks two catalysts on the same day: the Sensex weekly expiry during our session, and the US June jobs report after our close (a day early). Here's how to trade a gap-up on expiry day — why 24,000 is now the floor, why the Sensex hinges entirely on 77,000, and why buying the dips beats chasing the gap when the real move waits for tonight. Plus a plain-English breakdown of "event premium": why protection stays expensive into a scheduled announcement even when the tape is dead calm. In this episode: 0:00 — The reclaim, and a gap-up into a two-catalyst day 1:15 — Global: US tech soft again, Asia split, rupee weak on 95, GIFT gap-up near 24,150 2:30 — Sensex expiry today + US jobs tonight: why it matters 3:45 — The money: pros long and hedged, foreigners short, the crowd exposed 5:00 — Levels: 24,000 the floor, 24,200 the cap; Sensex 77,000 the line into expiry 6:15 — Education: event premium — why protection stays priced for a shock 7:15 — The plan: buy dips to 24,050–24,100, respect 77,000, keep protection, let tonight decide Data: NSE, BSE. Nifty 24,005.85 (+0.59%) | Sensex 76,922.64 (+0.58%) | GIFT ~24,183 pre-open | 1-Jul close / 2-Jul pre-market. I'm building RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal. Track it live and stream every episode free on rupeecase.com. Not investment advice. For education only. =========================== HASHTAGS =========================== #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #StockMarketIndia #NSE #BSE #Trading #OptionsTrading #USJobsReport #NFP #Expiry #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase #PreMarket #FIIDII #Nifty50 =========================== LINKS =========================== Stream free: https://rupeecase.com Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube X/Instagram: @TanmayKurtkoti
T2 · E72
2 jul 2026
10:31
S2EP71 | 4,000 Became Resistance. IT Hit a 3-Year Low. But Most Stocks Closed Green. | 1st July Wed
The biggest expiry of the half-year was supposed to lock the market onto 24,000. It didn't. The index touched it, lost it, and drifted down to settle at 23,865 — while underneath the headline, more stocks rose than fell. Day 1 of the July series opens caught between a broken-down 24,000 — now resistance — and a 23,800 support that held, with the damage concentrated in one wounded sector: IT, now at a 3-year low. And it opens on a gap-up: GIFT Nifty is pointing straight back to 24,000 after US technology rallied overnight, so the day's first question is whether we reclaim the very level that just broke. In this episode: - Why the index closed red while the mid and small caps closed green - The one sector that dragged a cap-weighted index lower on a positive-breadth day - Foreign desks selling, domestic desks buying — the bid holding this market up - The 23,800 to 24,000 box, and what a clean close on either side opens - The gap-up test of 24,000 — why a US-tech-led reclaim would flip the whole character - Why US jobs data on Thursday is the real catalyst this week - The idea that saves you from panicking at a red screen: the index is a weighted average, not a headcount of the market Today's plan: trade the range with an upside tilt — buy dips toward 23,800, watch for a reclaim of 24,000 that squeezes the shorts, and keep a little cheap protection into Thursday's Sensex expiry and US jobs data. Chapters: 00:00 The expiry that didn't settle on its number 00:35 Global tape and the morning setup 01:30 Who's buying, who's selling 03:00 Red index, green market — the IT story 04:15 The 23,800 to 24,000 box 05:15 Why the index number isn't the market 06:30 The plan, and Thursday's test Data: NSE and BSE official closing figures. Educational content only — not investment advice. Stream every episode free on rupeecase.com, or listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and YouTube. ================ HASHTAGS ================ #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #StockMarketIndia #Trading #FIIDII #NiftyIT #JulySeries #RupeeCase #MarketBreadth ================ LINKS ================ Listen free: https://rupeecase.com Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com
T2 · E71
1 jul 2026
11:19
S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday
Last episode the pros bought volatility at the lows. One session later, the trap sprang — Nifty lost 24,000, closing 23,946, and India VIX ROSE to 13.56 on a down day. Today is the heaviest settlement on the calendar: the Nifty weekly, the Nifty and Bank Nifty monthly, the June quarterly, and the half-yearly long-dated and LEAPS series all expire on one close. Tanmay breaks down why a RISING fear gauge into a max-settlement expiry flips the entire expiry-day playbook — why the max-pain magnet at 24,000 loses its grip, where the real support now sits, and how the smart money just repositioned. In this episode: - Why Monday's breakdown was broader than the headline (2,036 stocks down vs 1,330 up) — and India fell while the world rallied - The defensive rotation: autos and banks out (Bank Nifty lost 58,000), pharma and power in - The positioning shift: after 24,000 broke, the pros CUT their upside calls and kept their puts; foreign money pressed shorts and bought puts; the crowd is short 7,46,908 puts - The levels: 24,000 flips to resistance and max pain, 23,800 is the new support, the straddle prices only ~160 - The education: a rising VIX into a monthly/quarterly/LEAPS expiry detaches price from max pain — falling vol, trust the pin; rising vol, respect the trend - The plan: buy the dip at 23,800, own cheap optionality, don't sell the straddle into a rising fear gauge Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL official. Not investment advice. Stream free on rupeecase.com. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube. HASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #BankNifty #Expiry #OptionChain #IndiaVIX #Volatility #FIIDII #ProVsClient #RupeeCase #StockMarketIndia #Trading LINKS: Listen / stream free: https://rupeecase.com RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com X: https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti
T2 · E70
30 jun 2026
13:32
S2EP69 | 24,000 Support, 24,200 Resistance. The Pros Just Bought Volatility. Monthly Expiry Tomorrow | 29th June Monday
Thursday closed green — and gave back 205 points from its high. The rally hit resistance and got sold back to flat. Then three days shut for Muharram. Today we come back into the eve of the monthly expiry, coiled inside a 200-point range — and the pros just went and bought volatility. In this episode: the upper-wick fade nobody on your feed flagged; the options book by participant — the Pro desk now long both calls AND puts (long volatility) while the crowd sells puts into a VIX low; and the official 30-June chain — 24,000 support that held all day, fresh 24,200 resistance, a 24,100 pin, India VIX at 13, a ~225 straddle and a 1SD of about 275 points. The lesson: read the chain for volatility, not just direction — and when vol is cheap and the pros are buying it, you own the move, you don't sell it. POV: buy the dips. Levels, positioning, and the plan into Tuesday's monthly expiry — all off NSE, BSE and NSDL data. No noise. Free every trading morning at 8:30 IST on rupeecase.com — built on RupeeCase, India's first systematic investing terminal. This is The Tanmay Edge. You just got earlier. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SHOW NOTES / CHAPTERS: 00:00 Green is a costume — Thursday's rejected high 01:15 The fade: split tape, autos up, IT/metals down 02:30 Flows: DII carrying, FII lightening the short 03:45 The options book — Pro long both wings, crowd short puts 05:30 Levels + volatility — 24,000 / 24,100 / 24,200, VIX 13, straddle 225, 1SD ±275 07:00 Education: read the chain for volatility, not just direction 08:15 Macro: 5th down day on Wall St, crude ~$70, flat GIFT 08:55 The plan — buy the dips, own the optionality ---------------------------------------------------------------- KEYWORDS/TAGS: Nifty, Sensex, monthly expiry, options, max pain, call wall, put floor, FII DII, open interest, India VIX, BankNifty, 24000, 24200, Tanmay Edge SOURCES (public, on-air): NSE, BSE, NSDL/SEBI/RBI only. "India's first systematic investing terminal." DISTRIBUTION: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, rupeecase.com (homepage free), Telegram, @TanmayKurtkoti on X / LinkedIn / Instagram.
T2 · E69
29 jun 2026
10:33
S2EP68 | 24000 Cracked, Reclaimed, Re-Floored. Now Sensex Expiry | 25th June Thursday
Tuesday the floor cracked. Wednesday Nifty reclaimed 24,000 (24,021.65, +0.83%) and Sensex 76,991.22 (+1.04%) — but on a DII rescue while FIIs sold cash and deepened their futures short. The tell that changed the read: the 30-June Nifty put-call ratio flipped 0.78 to 1.21, with 24,000 now the biggest put wall and put-writers rebuilding the floor they lost. Today is Sensex weekly expiry, gapping up into the 77,000 wall on a zero-day, with US Core PCE waiting tonight. Levels, positioning, gamma and the plan. SOURCE LINE: NSE, BSE, NSDL.
T2 · E68
25 jun 2026
11:13
S2EP67 | 24000 Cracked On Expiry. The Floor Is Now The Ceiling | 24th June Wednesday
For three weeks, 24,000 was the floor. On expiry day it cracked. The Nifty held till 11:30, then let go straight through 24,000 and closed at the low — 23,824.10, down 278.80 (−1.16%), seven stocks up and forty-three down. The level you were buying is now the level you have to sell into. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Tue close: Nifty 23,824.10 (−278.80, −1.16%), range 23,784.95–24,135.50. Sensex 76,200.68 (−893.39, −1.16%). IT and metals led the fall — Infosys −3.36%, TCS −3.16%, Tata Steel −2.66%. Only four Nifty names green. • The why: global, not domestic. Korea fell ~10% Monday (circuit-breaker, chip rout), US Nasdaq −2% overnight, an everything-selloff with gold and crypto down too. • Flows: FII cash net FLAT (+₹18 Cr) on a 279-point down day; DII bought ₹680 Cr. The fall came through index futures and global beta, not cash selling. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped net short (−2,131). FII went deeper short — ~2.29 lakh contracts (added ~5,800), all three legs bearish. Client bought the dip — net long ~1.63 lakh, the crowd catching the knife. • The flip (30-Jun chain): 24,000 — the old floor — is now the biggest call wall of the month (~13.6M). Real support below is 23,500 (8.5M puts). PCR 0.78, call-heavy. • Max pain: 24,000 — the chain's magnet is still the broken floor. The whole week is a fight at that one number. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty 23,864 (+53), soft higher open. US tech −2% overnight, no help. Brent 76.41, crude a cushion. Gold under 4,100. USD/INR 94.73. India VIX 14. The plan: no expiry today, so no pin — it's an auction, a follow-through day. Sell the rallies, respect the broken level. Resistance 23,900 then 24,000; sell into it or let it prove itself. Support 23,800, 23,700, then the real floor 23,500. Only a clean reclaim and hold of 24,000 says the foreign shorts are covering. The education today: support becomes resistance. When a floor that held for weeks breaks, it flips into a ceiling — because the longs who bought it are now trapped underwater and sell into any bounce back to break-even. Their relief is your resistance. EP66 graded 3/8 — the pin thesis broke when 24,000 cracked, though the break-calls landed. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.
T2 · E67
24 jun 2026
12:09
S2EP66 | Weekly Expiry: 24000 Floor, 24200 Ceiling, Max Pain 24100 | 23rd June Tuesday
Monday's gap-up did half its job. The Nifty held the 24,000 floor, closed up 0.37% at 24,102.90, and the IT wreck from Friday reversed clean — Tech Mahindra, Infosys and pharma led the bounce. But it stalled cold at 24,200 and faded. Now it's weekly expiry, and the chain has built the tightest room of the week. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Mon close: Nifty 24,102.90 (+89.80, +0.37%), range 24,073–24,168. Sensex 77,094.07 (+0.38%). IT and banks led; consumption (Asian Paints, Titan, ITC) dragged. • Flows: FII sold ₹636 Cr cash, DII bought ₹1,036 Cr — a flip from Friday. No conviction either side. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped to a small net long in index futures (+1,193) — first desk leaning up. FII still net short ~2.23 lakh contracts but covered ~3,600; hedged-bearish (long puts, short calls). Client net long 1.54 lakh, sold puts heavily — crowd bullish. • The walls (23-Jun chain): FLOOR 24,000 = 13.15M puts (biggest line). CEILING 24,200 = 13.35M calls (biggest line). ATM 24,100 balanced. PCR 0.87. • Max pain: 24,100 — exactly where we open. • Gamma flip ~24,150: above it pins toward 24,200, below 24,100 amplifies toward 24,000. • Expected move: ATM straddle ~129 → 1SD ±129 → 23,975–24,230. VIX ~13, IV ~10%. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty flat at 24,086 (−13). Global soft — US tech −1.3% overnight, Asia red. Brent 77.71, crude a cushion. USD/INR 94.68. The plan is a pin: coil 24,000–24,200, settle near 24,100. Hold 24,150 and it drifts toward the 24,200 ceiling; lose 24,100 and it slides to the 24,000 floor where you buy the dip. A clean close below 24,000 opens 23,950 then 23,900. The education today: 0DTE theta. On expiry the option you buy in the morning has a 3:30 deadline — you can be right on direction and still lose, because time decay drains it faster than the spot can move. The walls tell you where; the clock says it must get there today. EP65 graded 5/6 — every level and the band landed; only the "IT keeps dragging" call missed, because IT bounced. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.
T2 · E66
23 jun 2026
12:35
S2EP65 | The Streak Broke On IT. 24,000 Held. Now The Gap-Up | 22nd June Monday
Five green days ended Friday — and it broke on IT alone, not the whole market. Infosys fell almost 7 percent after a global consulting giant cut its outlook, dragging TCS, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra with it. But the Nifty closed at 24,013, held the 24,000 line, and the rest of the market shrugged it off. Monday opens with a gap-up and a tailwind from Asia — and no expiry to hide behind. Foreign funds bought cash on Friday but added to a 2.26 lakh-contract short bet on the index. That's the tension: squeeze fuel if 24,000 holds, a trap if the gap-up fades. In this episode: - Why one company in Ireland repriced India's entire IT sector - The 24,000 test and what held it - The map for Monday: above 24,100 vs back under 24,000 - Education: "sell the news" — why Reliance posted a record profit, filed the Jio IPO, and still fell Track every level live and listen free on rupeecase.com. RupeeCase is India's first systematic investing terminal. Data: NSE, BSE.
T2 · E65
22 jun 2026
8:26
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