Three things happening at once today. GIFT Nifty down 338 points this morning — opening below 23,000. FIIs added shorts for the second straight Friday. And RupeeCase rebalances — right at 23,000.

The data: FIIs sold ₹5,518 crores in cash on Friday and added another 5,556 futures shorts. Their net short position is now −2,34,508 contracts — heading back towards the −2,60,540 peak. Cumulative cash selling is approaching ₹1 lakh crore. But DII cash buying was +₹5,706 Cr — almost perfectly absorbing the sell. The 23,000 put OI grew from 6.75 lakh to 7.29 lakh on Friday. Someone is adding protection, not removing it.

Tomorrow is the 24-Mar weekly expiry. IV at 22%. Pre-expiry Monday with a gap below 23,000 = one of the most volatile setups of S2. Watch the first 15 minutes carefully. Sharp volatility expected — IV can spike above 28. Long  ...