The Rate Of Change

por Murdoch Gatti

Temporada 1

#53 Kevin Bertoli | From Crisis to Opportunity: What Happens When a Crisis Changes an Industry?

Kevin Bertoli joins Murdoch Gatti on The Rate Of Change to discuss how PM Capital identifies opportunity when markets are focused on fear, uncertainty and short-term noise, and why major crises can create some of the most compelling investment opportunities. What happens when a crisis permanently changes an industry? Process is deceptively simple. A crisis hits. Weak players fail. Industries consolidate. Survivors gain market share. Competition reduces. Economics improve. Yet markets often continue pricing the old fear long after the fundamentals have changed. In this episode, Kevin explains how PM Capital has applied this framework across global markets, including European banks, and why some of the most compelling investment opportunities emerge when pessimism is at its peak. Topics discussed: • Why value investing remains relevant in today's market, • How industry consolidation can create long-term winners, • The investment case for European banks, • Why market narratives often lag economic reality, • How PM Capital identifies global opportunities overlooked by consensus, • The role of management quality, capital allocation and valuation, • AI, productivity and the changing competitive landscape, • Where PM Capital sees opportunities today. A discussion on investing through cycles, identifying overlooked opportunities and finding value where others are unwilling to look.

T1 · E53

15 jun 2026

1:17:54

#52 Jason Coggins | The AI & Energy War, Semiconductors, Private Credit & Geopolitical Shifts

Insights Series — Jason Coggins joins Murdoch Gatti to unpack the structural forces reshaping markets, technology and capital allocation in 2026. In this episode of The Rate of Change, they explore how AI, geopolitics, energy systems and global capital flows are changing the investment landscape — from the U.S.–China race for semiconductors, Energy, resources and AI dominance, to the structural risks emerging across private credit, productivity and legacy business models. Topics discussed: • How AI could compress business creation from years into months • Why the U.S.–China geopolitical battle for chips, energy and AI dominance may define the next decade • Whether legacy SaaS, consulting and private equity models are more vulnerable than markets realise • Why Australia’s productivity, energy grid and policy settings are becoming structural economic problems • The key differences between Australian and U.S. private credit markets — and where the real risks sit • Why semiconductors, data centres and energy infrastructure are becoming critical geopolitical assets • Whether markets can continue pushing higher despite inflation, war and geopolitical uncertainty • Why Asia, Taiwan, Korea, India and frontier markets may become increasingly important in global growth A wide-ranging discussion on macroeconomics, geopolitics, technology, investing and the long-term structural shifts shaping the global economy. 🎧 Listen now and enjoy.

T1 · E52

10 may 2026

1:27:49

#51 Todd Warren | When the World Demands Energy: The Real Cost Is Supply — And It Runs Through the Strait of Hormuz

In this episode of The Rate of Change, Murdoch Gatti sits down with Todd Warren, Portfolio Manager & Head of Research at Tribeca Investment Partners, to unpack a critical shift taking place across global commodity markets — and why the real story isn’t demand, but supply. If you are interested in uranium, oil, natural gas, LNG, copper, sulphur, lithium, rare earths, iron ore, coal, hydrogen, carbon markets, nuclear energy, titanium, advanced materials and broader strategic minerals, then you will enjoy this conversation. Over the past decade, commodities have been under-owned, underinvested and largely ignored as capital flowed into growth assets. ESG constraints and weak pricing suppressed new supply across energy and mining. That dynamic is now reversing. As Todd explains, we are entering a structurally different macro regime — one defined by constrained supply, geopolitical fragmentation and persistent inflation. Unlike prior cycles, this is not simply about stronger demand. The system itself is tight. A key insight from the conversation is the fragility of global supply chains. Critical inputs — including sulphur, essential for copper processing — are heavily reliant on global chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions here don’t just impact oil, but cascade through copper, fertilisers and broader industrial supply chains. In copper specifically, it is not just the availability of ore that matters, but the availability of inputs required to process it — creating an additional layer of supply constraint that is often overlooked. This is where the real risk — and opportunity — lies. Across oil, LNG, copper, uranium and key transition metals, years of under investment mean supply cannot respond quickly enough, while demand is reinforced by electrification, energy security and the re-emergence of nuclear power. Where commodities were once treated as tactical exposures, they are increasingly being viewed as strategic allocations — offering inflation protection and asymmetric upside. Todd also outlines how Tribeca Investment Partners expresses these views through its Global Natural Resources Strategy, a flexible long/short approach across equities, credit and commodities. The strategy has historically targeted 15–20% p.a. returns, while its listed vehicle, Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited, returned approximately 60% in calendar year 2025. Companies Discussed: BHP.ASX – BHP Group BOE.ASX – Boss Energy BRE.ASX – Brazilian Rare Earths BTL.ASX – Beetaloo Energy Australia CCO.TSX – Cameco 1605.TYO – Inpex ILU.ASX – Iluka Resources IPX.ASX – IperionX LYC.ASX – Lynas Rare Earths MEI.ASX – Meteoric Resources MP.NYSE – MP Materials NXE.TSX – NexGen Energy OMA.ASX – Omega Oil & Gas PDN.ASX – Paladin Energy PLS.ASX – Pilbara Minerals RIO.ASX – Rio Tinto STO.ASX – Santos TBN.ASX – Tamboran Resources (CDI)TGF.ASX – Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited VMM.ASX – Viridis Mining and Minerals WDS.ASX – Woodside Energy WPM.NYSE – Wheaton Precious Metals 6KA.ASX – 6K Additives (CDI)

T1 · E51

7 abr 2026

1:14:13

#50 Ryan Bass | The Repricing of Institutional Property: From Single Digits to Double-Digit Potential

In this episode of The Rate of Change, Murdoch Gatti sits down with Ryan Bass, Founder of PanGen Capital, to discuss the repricing of institutional property and how capital is being deployed in a higher rate, more fragmented market environment. If you are interested in institutional real estate, income-focused investing, and how professional investors are accessing property opportunities typically reserved for large institutions, then you will enjoy this conversation. Over the past two years, rising interest rates have reshaped the property landscape. Valuations have reset, capital has become more selective, and many investors have stepped back from the asset class. But while sentiment has weakened, the underlying income story has not. High-quality retail assets — particularly shopping centres — have proven more resilient than expected. Centres remain well occupied, tenant demand is strong, and trading conditions are healthy. At the same time, higher construction costs are limiting new supply, reinforcing the value of existing assets. These dynamics are feeding directly into income. Retail leases are often linked to CPI or turnover, allowing landlords to pass through rising costs while benefiting from tenant performance. In many cases, rental income has remained resilient and continues to grow despite broader market uncertainty. This is where the opportunity is emerging. Where institutional property once delivered mid- to high-single digit returns, parts of the market are now presenting the potential for double-digit return profiles — driven by improved entry pricing, durable cashflows and reduced competition. Ryan explains why capital is rotating into retail, how office assets are becoming increasingly selective, and how his fund-of-funds model provides access to institutional-grade opportunities — including exposure to the Dexus Wholesale Property Fund and leading institutional retail property vehicles such as GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund, Lendlease APPF Retail Fund, Dexus Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund and ISPT Retail Australia Property Trust — that are typically inaccessible to most investors. He also reflects on how the strategy has evolved from a focus on defensive income to capturing a more compelling return profile without necessarily increasing risk. In this conversation Murdoch and Ryan discuss: • How rising interest rates have driven a repricing across institutional property markets • The shift to a higher cost of capital and its impact on valuations • Why returns are moving from mid-single digits to potential double-digit opportunities • The disconnect between sentiment and underlying income • Why retail property, particularly shopping centres, has proven resilient • How strong occupancy, tenant demand and trading conditions are supporting assets • The impact of rising construction costs in limiting new supply • How CPI-linked leases and turnover rents allow landlords to pass through inflation • The rotation of capital away from office into higher conviction opportunities • The bifurcation within office markets and focus on high-quality assets • Exposure to institutional managers, including the Dexus Wholesale Property Fund • The structure of PanGen Capital’s fund-of-funds model • Differences between core, core-plus and value-add strategies • How capital scarcity is creating better acquisition opportunities • The importance of manager selection and asset quality • Managing liquidity and portfolio construction in unlisted assets • The role of institutional property for income and diversification • How investors are positioning in a higher rate, uncertain environment Enjoy!

T1 · E50

29 mar 2026

1:03:31

#49 Michael Frazis | War Time Markets & Where Capital Is Flowing in a Fragmenting World

In this episode of The Rate of Change, Murdoch Gatti sits down with Michael Frazis, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Frazis Capital Partners, to discuss the shifting macro landscape and how capital is being deployed in an increasingly fragmented global market. If you are interested in war time markets, capital flows, artificial intelligence, and how professional investors are positioning portfolios in a changing world, then you will enjoy this conversation. Markets are no longer being driven by a single narrative. Geopolitics, energy shocks, inflation and technological disruption are colliding — creating a far more complex and uneven investment environment. In this environment, capital is not flowing evenly. It is concentrating into specific areas — AI infrastructure, semiconductors, defence, energy and large-scale platform businesses — while other parts of the market, particularly software and consumer-facing sectors, face increasing pressure. Frazis outlines how this shift is reshaping opportunity sets globally, and how his firm is navigating risk, volatility and changing market regimes through a combination of fundamental insight and quantitative risk management. In this conversation Murdoch and Michael discuss: • How war time dynamics and geopolitics are actively reshaping global markets and capital flows • The shift away from globalisation towards a more fragmented, multipolar world • Why capital is no longer flowing evenly — and instead concentrating into specific sectors and themes • Why energy, commodities and defence are emerging as structural beneficiaries in this environment • The pressure on consumers from higher fuel, labour and input costs — and how that flows through markets • Why Australia, as a commodity exporter, is relatively well positioned in this cycle • How currency movements, particularly the Australian dollar, impact offshore investing outcomes • The scale of AI capex and the infrastructure build-out required to support it • Why semiconductors and key bottlenecks (NVIDIA – NVDA, Broadcom – AVGO) are critical to the next phase of AI • The broader capex cycle spanning AI, energy, defence and industrial capacity • Why market returns are increasingly being driven by a small number of mega-cap companies (Alphabet – GOOGL, Microsoft – MSFT, Amazon – AMZN, Meta – META, Apple – AAPL) • How passive flows are reinforcing these winners and creating dispersion beneath the surface • The growing divergence between large platform businesses and traditional software companies • Why parts of software (Atlassian – TEAM, Adobe – ADBE, WiseTech – WTC.AX, Block – XYZ, Salesforce – CRM, GitLab – GTLB) may face structural pressure from AI • How AI is beginning to reshape business models, margins and competitive moats in real time • Lessons from companies like Costco (COST), Walmart (WMT), Tesla (TSLA), BlackBerry (BB) and DHL Group (DHL.DE) in understanding scale, disruption and durability • Why this is becoming a true stock picker’s market, with increasing dispersion in outcomes • The importance of risk management and portfolio construction in a volatile, late-cycle environment • How professional investors are positioning portfolios to navigate uncertainty and capture asymmetric opportunities For investors and industry professionals, this episode provides a clear framework for understanding where capital is flowing, what is actually driving markets today, and how to position portfolios in a more fragmented and uncertain world.

T1 · E49

22 mar 2026

1:07:39

#48 Michael Campbell | The Great Adviser Shortage & How Growth Advisers Are Building Firms Through Acquisition

In this episode of The Rate of Change, Murdoch Gatti sits down with Michael Campbell, Principal of McAlistair Capital, to discuss the structural changes reshaping the Australian financial advice profession. If you are interested in the future of financial advice, the economics of advisory firms, and how growth advisers are building larger businesses through acquisition, then you will enjoy this conversation. Over the past decade, adviser numbers have fallen dramatically as regulation, education requirements and compliance standards reshaped the industry. While the profession has become smaller, it has also become more professionalised — increasingly resembling other trusted professions such as law and medicine. At the same time, a new group of growth advisers is emerging. Rather than operating small lifestyle practices, these advisers are building scalable advisory firms through acquisitions, infrastructure and strategic capital. Campbell works directly with advisers navigating this transition, helping them source deals, structure transactions and grow their firms through mergers and acquisitions in the wealth management sector. In this conversation Murdoch and Michael discuss: • The dramatic decline in adviser numbers in Australia • Why financial advice is becoming a scarcity profession • The difference between lifestyle practices and growth advisory firms • How financial advice businesses are valued • Why scale changes valuation multiples • How advisers can grow by acquiring other practices • The mechanics of financing advisory firm acquisitions • Why consolidation is likely to reshape the advice industry over the next decade For advisers, investors and industry professionals, this episode offers a rare look inside the economics of financial advice businesses and the opportunities emerging as the industry evolves.

T1 · E48

10 mar 2026

1:10:06

#47 Jason Coggins | AI Arms Race, SaaS Disruption, Private Credit & Global Macro Insights

In this episode of The Rate of Change, host Murdoch Gatti sits down with investment strategist Jason Coggins, former Joint Head of a major wealth management firm and consultant to leading private-market firms including Aura Group, Ellerston Capital, and IBEX Investors. Jason also serves on the investment committees for Australian Philanthropic Services and Third Link Growth Fund, providing him with a uniquely broad view across public and private markets. Murdoch and Jason explore the major macro forces shaping wealth creation in 2025 — from the rapid acceleration of AI and large language models, to evolving trends in global private credit, to the shifting dynamics of U.S.–China competition in technology, energy, and infrastructure investment. Together, they examine questions such as: In what way is the Australian private credit market structurally different to the U.S., and how do differences in creditor rights, recovery processes and loan duration shape risk? How is AI reducing business-formation timelines, and what does that mean for early-stage investors, founders, and legacy SaaS businesses? Could some private equity and SaaS business models be more exposed to disruption than previously understood? Why might seed-stage technology investing offer the cleanest expression of AI-driven upside, compared with later-stage deals? Could the U.S. CapEx boom — driven by data centres, AI infrastructure and geopolitical competition — create the conditions for a market melt-up despite elevated valuations? What structural challenges does Australia face around productivity, government spending, energy reliability, and housing supply? And which regions — including Asia, India and select frontier markets — may play a larger role in driving global growth over the next decade? This episode brings together forward-looking ideas and frameworks relevant to high-net-worth investors, private credit specialists, family offices, and anyone navigating one of the most dynamic investment landscapes in decades. If you want to understand the trends driving the rate of change across markets, technology and global macro — please have a listen and enjoy! You can reach me at mgatti@ywm.com.au and www.yorkwealth.com.au

T1 · E47

16 nov 2025

1:16:08

#46 - Ben Harrison | Backing Growth Beyond Lending: How Altor & Prime Combine Debt, Equity & Strategy to Invest in Mid-Market Businesses

In today’s ROCast, Murdoch is joined by Ben Harrison, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Altor Capital, which as of February 2024 has been acquired by Prime Financial Group. Ben’s career began in engineering and project management on major infrastructure projects across Australia and Southeast Asia, before moving into finance with Wilsons — soon to be part of Canaccord — where he worked in equity research, ECM, and M&A. Nearly a decade ago, he co-founded Altor, building it into a specialist alternative asset manager with a focus on private credit and growth equity. What I find most interesting about Altor is that they’re not just lending to businesses. They want to get in alongside them, with both debt and equity, and work with founders to succeed. Their loans are senior secured, giving investors downside protection, but Altor often takes an equity stake too — putting them on the same side of the table as management and giving their investors a share in the potential upside. Their borrowers are typically operating companies with $20–100 million in revenue and $2–10 million in EBITDA, looking for capital to expand, make acquisitions, or invest in growth. Altor isn’t a property lender — they don’t fund land banking or development — but when a business owns property, or other hard assets, those assets are taken into account as part of the security package. In that sense, they use the full balance sheet to structure deals, but always through the lens of backing operating businesses. As of the time of recording, Altor’s flagship Private Credit Fund had delivered just under 12% per annum net of fees over its seven-year track record, paying quarterly distributions with a 10% cash yield target. That consistency comes from disciplined structuring, active involvement, and the additional upside created by equity positions. We also talk about Altor’s decision to join Prime Financial Group. The acquisition gave Altor the scale and infrastructure to accelerate growth, while opening up Prime’s sports and entertainment advisory business. Together, they’ve already completed several high-profile deals — most notably, the acquisition of the Tasmania Jack Jumpers NBL team — showing how sports franchises can be treated as platform assets with strong brands, loyal fans, and multiple streams of revenue. So, before we get into the conversation, please remember this ROCast is made for entertainment purposes only. I encourage you to listen to the disclaimer at the end of this ROCast and to keep your feedback coming. You can reach me at mgatti@ywm.com.au. With that being said, I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did. So sit back, relax, and enjoy.

T1 · E46

22 sept 2025

1:11:26

#45 - Eric Chan | Hunting Unicorns: The AI Opportunity in Asia-Pacific

In today’s ROCast, Murdoch Gatti is joined by Eric Chan, co-founder and Group MD of Aura Ventures & Aura Group. Eric shares what it takes to build a funds management business and their pursuit of backing Asia-Pacific’s next AI unicorn — through a disciplined process that blends private credit stability with high-conviction venture capital. We break down Aura’s two flagship strategies: Aura Private Credit Income Fund — an evergreen wholesale fund that has delivered ~9% p.a. since 2017 by financing SME-focused non-bank lenders. With short-duration loans, first-loss protection, and monthly liquidity, it offers stable income and strong risk controls. Aura Venture Fund — a seed-stage vehicle conditionally registered as an ESVCLP (Early Stage Venture Capital Limited Partnership), where investors commit capital via staged calls, gain tax benefits once fully registered, and back founders across Australia and Southeast Asia. A standout holding is Haast, an AI compliance platform already used by Telstra and Zurich. As Eric points out, the best measure of AI success is cost savings — and Haast has reduced compliance costs by ~60%, cut review times by 80%, and scaled rapidly from a $1.2m pre-seed in 2023 to a $6m raise in 2025 to drive international growth. Eric also explains why venture capital must be run as a portfolio, how to balance write-offs against fund-returners, the cyclical nature of venture markets, and where AI is already creating measurable business value — and where Aura is looking to invest next. So, before we get into the conversation, please remember this ROCast is made for entertainment purposes only. I encourage you to listen to the disclaimer at the end of this ROCast and to keep your feedback coming. You can reach me at mgatti@ywm.com.au. With that being said, I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did, so sit back, relax, and enjoy.

T1 · E45

27 ago 2025

1:27:51

#44 - Johan Kenny | Tapping Into Australia's Essential Water Infrastructure Pipeline

In today’s ROCast, Murdoch is joined by Johann Kenny, CFA, Investment Director at Allcap Securities. Johann’s background spans capital markets, structured credit, and private equity—having held senior roles at ANZ, ING, Fitch Ratings, Equifax and Arowana. But what struck me most in this conversation is just how risk-averse and methodical he is—shaped, in part, by his early career navigating capital markets during the Sri Lankan civil war. In this episode, Johann breaks down the macro environment for construction in Australia—highlighting the difference between private sector development and government-funded infrastructure, particularly essential water projects tied to long-term public service delivery. And today we’re doing something different. Instead of a managed fund, we’re looking at a special purpose vehicle (SPV)—structured to acquire a Tier 2 builder delivering sewage plants, pump stations, filtration facilities, and stormwater infrastructure for local councils across NSW and QLD. The deal is: backed by NAB, targeting a 10%+ annual cash yield dividend distribution and target 2.5x return over three years, $14.5 million FY25 EBITDA forecast and a 5.0x acquisition multiple. What I found fascinating is how this ties into those moments where governments announce infrastructure spending to stimulate the economy. Ever wonder where that money actually ends up? Well, it’s firms like this—quietly delivering critical projects that ensure sewage doesn’t flow into rivers and towns have the systems they need to grow. This conversation covers a lot—from deal structure and risk management, to how Allcap thinks about governance, cashflow timing, and exit pathways. As always, this ROCast is for entertainment purposes only. Feel free to reach me at mgatti@ywm.com.au. With that being said, I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did, so sit back, relax, and enjoy.

T1 · E44

30 jun 2025

1:12:27

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