Economic Reality Check Podcast Notes

Market Performance (Jan-Apr 2025)

• S&P 500 hit all-time high of 6,250 around inauguration (Jan 20)
• Since Feb 15: S&P down ~18% (bear market territory)
• $7+ trillion in market value erased
• Nasdaq down 22.3% from peak
• Gradual decline unlike 2020 COVID crash

Bond Market Signals

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.2% → 3.4%
• 2-year Treasury yield: 4.1% → 3.1%
• Flattening yield curve (recession indicator)

Tariff Impact ("Tariffs 2.0")

• Universal 10% tariff on all imports
• Targeted tariffs: up to 60% on Chinese goods, 25% on Mexican/Canadian imports
• Estimated cost: $320 billion annually (~$2,400 per household)
• Walmart raised prices on 2,000+ items by avg 8.3%

International Respon ...