2 Feb 2026

Solar activity has been intense over the past 48 hours, with a 10% chance of a modern Carrington event occurring due to the growing and active sunspot group 4366. This sunspot has the potential to produce a coronal mass ejection strong enough to cause a geomagnetic storm with severe technological implications, similar to the Carrington event of 1859. The risk of a Carrington event increases as the sunspot rotates closer to Earth-direct.

The sun has been highly active for the past three days, with multiple X-class and M-class solar flares. This activity has significantly ionised the Earth’s ionosphere, potentially causing radio blackouts and inducing currents in the oceans and Earth’s crust. While a direct impact from a coronal mass ejection is unlikely, the risk of a significant geomagnetic storm remains, with a 10-20% chan ...