Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

por Ray Powell & Jim Carouso

Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Philippine Alliance? with AMB MaryKay Carlson

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, who led America’s embassy in Manila from July 2022 to January 2026, one of the most consequential periods in the modern history of the U.S.-Philippine alliance. Ambassador Carlson takes us inside the alliance at a moment of dramatic transformation: the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.. She walks us through the most dangerous flashpoints in the West Philippine Sea: the June 2024 ramming at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) that cost a Filipino sailor his thumb, and the August 2025 Scarborough Shoal incident in which a Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with its own PLA Navy destroyer while chasing a Philippine vessel. We dig into the strategic geography that makes the Philippines irreplaceable to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy; the largest Balikatan exercise in history; the expansion of EDCA sites; the new $2.5 billion Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act; the new Luzon Economic Corridor (with Japan); the U.S.-Philippines 123 civil nuclear agreement; and the 19% Trump tariff Carlson openly wishes had been much lower. She offers a candid read on China’s Ambassador Huang Xilian’s successor, Jing Quan, the limits of the ASEAN Code of Conduct, and what actually deters Beijing’s gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea. If you follow U.S.-China competition, the U.S.-Philippines alliance, ASEAN, Philippine politics, the Marcos administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, the South China Sea, or U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration, this is essential listening from someone who lived it up close. 👉 Follow AMB Carlson on X, @MaryKayCarlson 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E149

20 may 2026

50:32

Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann

What if China could take Taiwan without firing a single missile? In this episode, Dr. Eyck Freymann explains how Beijing's primary strategy isn't a cross-strait invasion - it's a gray-zone "quarantine" that could leave Taipei and Washington with no good options. Dr. Freymann, a Hoover Institution Fellow and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down why Taiwan is the central strategic question of our era, and why the United States still doesn't have a plan to deter Xi Jinping’s ambitions to take the island. Freymann argues that Taiwan’s importance rests on three pillars: its production of 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors powering AI, its position anchoring the First Island Chain that constrains China’s navy, and its role in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order. In this episode, we talk to Eyck about: •⁠ ⁠The quarantine scenario: why Beijing might simply declare that all ships and aircraft entering Taiwan must clear Chinese customs first. •⁠ ⁠Why TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fabs are generations behind and can’t replace what’s in Taiwan. •⁠ ⁠Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” project and why Taiwan is the keystone in the arch. •⁠ ⁠Structured ambiguity: Freymann’s original concept for countering China’s gray-zone salami slicing. •⁠ ⁠Avalanche decoupling: a realistic plan to reduce dangerous economic dependencies on China before a crisis hits. If you care about US-China competition, AI, semiconductors, or whether war can still be prevented - this is essential listening. 👉 Follow Dr. Eyck Freymann on LinkedIn or X, @eyckfreymann 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E148

15 may 2026

51:41

Why Should We Care About the Trump–Xi Summit? | with Michael Sobolik

This week President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping - the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. But this isn't 2017 all over again. China is stronger, America's alliances are under strain, the war in Iran has scrambled the chessboard, and the stakes run straight through Taiwan, AI chips, rare earths and critical minerals, and the supply chains the world depends on. Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Caruso are joined by Michael Sobolik, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and author of Countering China's Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance. Michael unpacks why Trump may be arriving in Beijing with less leverage than he wanted, why the Iran war isn't the "four-dimensional chess" anti-China strategy some Washington commentators imagine, and what Xi Jinping's "Christmas wish list" could look like - from a public U.S. statement against Taiwanese independence to economic offers that sound like wins but could deepen American dependence on China and spook America’s Indo-Pacific allies. He also warns about the AI race hiding in plain sight: selling advanced chips to China, he argues, can mean "equipping your adversary with a weapon they don't know how to make themselves yet." As for Chinese electric vehicles manufactured on American soil, he calls that "TikTok on wheels" - a potential extinction-level event for U.S. and Japanese automakers and a national security nightmare. Michael flags one summit topic getting too much attention: setting AI rules, which he thinks is likely to yield very little substantial fruit. He also emphasizes another getting too little: political prisoners. Human rights, he argues, isn't just a moral add-on, it's strategic pressure on a Leninist regime that fears its own people, and one of the most overlooked sources of American leverage heading into Beijing. 👉 Follow Michael Sobolik on LinkedIn or X, @michaelsobolik 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E147

12 may 2026

54:46

Why Should We Care if Beijing’s Propaganda is Attacking Journalists who Report Critically on China? | with Regine Cabato

What happens when you publish an investigation that an authoritarian superpower doesn't want the world to see? Journalist Regine Cabato found out. A contributor at the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) and former Washington Post correspondent in Manila, Regine published an explainer exposing how pro-China disinformation networks have taken root in Filipino social media feeds. The Chinese Embassy in Manila responded by attacking PCIJ online and putting her face on its social media posts - unleashing a torrent of harassment, sexist abuse, and smears labeling her a "CIA plant" and a tool of U.S. interests. In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Regine to unpack what happened and why it matters far beyond the Philippines. She walks us through how she identified the red flags of pro-Beijing propaganda, why participation in China-sponsored journalist programs isn't automatically disqualifying but the rhetoric that follows often is, and how influence operations exploit the overlap between pro-Duterte networks and pro-China narratives without ever being overtly traceable to the Chinese state. Regine also reveals the personal toll: the midnight moment her phone lit up with the embassy's post, watching the hate campaign build in real time, and why she says the attacks are actually a sign her reporting is landing. She reflects on the solidarity she received from the Committee to Protect Journalists, Reporters Without Borders and Philippine press organizations - and why the Philippines remains one of the last places in the region where journalists can still report critically on China. The conversation ranges across transnational repression, U.S. credibility under the Trump administration, the weaponization of foreign-funding smears, and the broader chilling effect on Filipino newsrooms. Regine closes with a message for young reporters weighing whether to take on a powerful government: it's not for everyone, but any project that defends democratic discussion is worth it. If you care about press freedom, Chinese political warfare, the South China Sea, or the future of democracy in the Indo-Pacific, this is an essential listen. 👉 Follow Regine Cabato on LinkedIn or X, @RegineCabato 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E146

9 may 2026

54:56

Why Should We Care About Nepal? | Gen Z Revolution, India-China Rivalry & the Iran War’s Impact on South Asia | with BGA's Sujeev Shakya

Nepal just experienced one of Asia’s most dramatic recent political upheavals. A former rapper and Kathmandu mayor, Balen Shah, swept to power in a landslide election, winning 182 of 275 parliamentary seats and wiping out every established political party. With half of Nepal’s 30 million people under 25, this “Gen Z Revolution” could signal a trend for young democracies worldwide. In this episode, Sujeev Shakya - Chair of the Nepal Economic Forum and senior advisor for Nepal and Bhutan at BowerGroupAsia - explains what happened, why it matters, and what comes next for this small Himalayan country sandwiched between India and China. We explore: •⁠ ⁠How a youth-led anti-corruption movement toppled the government and formed an interim administration on Discord in just five days •⁠ ⁠Why Nepal’s new PM is focused on public service delivery rather than grand promises, and whether he can actually end decades of entrenched corruption •⁠ ⁠Nepal’s remarkable economic transformation: GDP growth from $7B to $44B in 20 years, fueled by $15B in annual remittances and a booming IT export sector •⁠ ⁠How Nepal navigates its position between India and China - aiming to be an economic “bridge” rather than a geopolitical buffer •⁠ ⁠The impact of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure on Nepal’s fuel supply and its two million workers in the Gulf •⁠ ⁠Why thousands of Nepali soldiers are fighting for Russia in Ukraine - and the new government’s challenge of bringing them home •⁠ ⁠Investment opportunities in hydropower, agriculture, technology, tourism, and infrastructure Whether you follow South Asian politics, India-China competition, or youth-led political movements, Nepal’s story offers insights into how small states survive and thrive between great powers. 👉 Follow Sujeev Shakya on LinkedIn or X, @sujeevshakya 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E145

1 may 2026

49:27

Why Should We Care About the World’s Blocked Oil Artery? | with Sal Mercogliano

Eighty to ninety percent of global commerce moves by sea - including 75% of the world’s oil and almost all liquefied natural gas (LNG). So when the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, the shockwaves reach every corner of the Indo-Pacific and beyond. In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back maritime historian Dr. Sal Mercogliano - Campbell University professor, former merchant mariner, and host of the popular YouTube channel What's Going on with Shipping? - to unpack the two-month-old crisis that has bottled up 800 ships inside the Persian Gulf and pushed the U.S. Navy to seize tankers thousands of miles away in the Indian Ocean. Sal lays out what he calls a “tale of two blockades”: Iran rerouting traffic into its own territorial waters, shaking down shipping companies for multimillion-dollar transit payments on an international waterway and seizing Mediterranean Shipping Company vessels, while the United States mounts a blockade from the Northern Arabian Sea, firing inert shells at the Iranian container ship Touska and boarding stateless tankers in the Indian Ocean under U.S. Department of Justice warrants. We dig into the Venezuela vessel seizure precedent, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the return of mine warfare, and why ship owners aren’t budging even with insurance on offer. Sal explains how ship-to-ship transfers off East Johor, Malaysia launder sanctioned Iranian crude, and why that anchorage could be the next target of U.S. enforcement. He also walks through the pressure building inside Iran: storage tanks filling, old supertankers towed out of retirement at Kharg Island, and the looming prospect of permanently damaging Iran’s aging low-pressure oil wells. We close on the ripple effects reaching Pakistan, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia - refineries shutting down, fertilizer supplies choked, and bunker fuel prices doubling - plus the quiet winner: Russia. Join us for a masterclass on why a regional war has become a global economic crisis and what the breakdown of freedom of the seas means for the Indo-Pacific. 👉 Follow Sal on YouTube and X, @mercoglianos 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E144

29 abr 2026

55:16

Why Should We Care About Kim Jong Un’s Dangerous Liaisons with Putin and Xi? | with Oriana Skylar Mastro

North Korean troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine, and the survivors are returning home to teach their comrades what they've learned. In return, Moscow is transferring military technology to Pyongyang. Beijing, worried about losing its grip, is competing for influence by easing up on decades of pressure that kept the Hermit Kingdom in check. And Washington? It's pulling forces out of the Indo-Pacific and sending them to other theaters. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Stanford's Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and leading expert on Chinese military strategy, to unpack her new Foreign Affairs article, "Kim's Dangerous Liaisons: Russia, China, and the Growing North Korea Threat." Oriana makes the case that the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous today than it has been in years. North Korea is more capable and emboldened and less restrained by its two great-power patrons, who are playing against each other for influence. A conflict on the peninsula today would inevitably pull in Russia and China, nuclear powers with combined military and industrial weight that rivals the United States. In this conversation: Why North Korea's Ukraine experience is reshaping its military doctrine What a "limited attack" on South Korea could look like, and how it could spiral Why China's restraining role over Pyongyang is breaking down How U.S. force movements to Iran are read in Beijing, Moscow, and Seoul The 1950 Dean Acheson parallel and what Washington risks repeating Why South Korea could one day hedge toward China if U.S. guarantees weaken What real deterrence in Northeast Asia would actually require A sharp, accessible podcast on great-power competition, alliance politics, Korean Peninsula security, U.S.-South Korea relations, and the growing China-Russia-North Korea axis. 👉 Follow Oriana Skylar Mastro on LinkedIn or X, @osmastro, or check out her new Indo-Pacific Policy Lab at Stanford University 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E143

24 abr 2026

53:49

Why Should We Care if China is Poisoning the Water Around a Philippine Outpost in the South China Sea? | with Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad

Philippine marines living aboard a rusting World War II ship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea have been eating fish from waters laced with cyanide, and their spokesman says an October 2025 incident may have gone further, with Chinese “fishermen” potentially attempting to introduce the toxin directly into the ship’s desalination system. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso sit down with Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Philippine Navy’s spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, to examine one of the most alarming accusations yet in the South China Sea dispute between the Philippines and China. Trinidad explains how the Armed Forces of the Philippines seized bottles from Chinese fishermen on four separate occasions between February 2025 and March 2026, and how recently concluded forensic testing has confirmed that the contents had contained cyanide. Was it a matter of destructive fishing techniques or something more sinister? He also discusses the July 2024 “provisional arrangement” on resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre and why its ambiguity may be both a stabilizing asset and a long-term vulnerability for Philippine maritime security. He also walks through China’s massive military buildup at Second Thomas Shoal after the embarrassing Chinese ship-on-ship collision at Scarborough Shoal, and how Manila’s transparency strategy helped force a partial de-escalation. The conversation then turns to information warfare. Trinidad explains why he pointedly refers not to “China” but to the “Chinese Communist Party”, in order to distinguish between the people of the Middle Kingdom and its government in Beijing. He also shares why being personally targeted by the Chinese Embassy in Manila - and being recently caricatured in a state-run Global Times political cartoon - is, in his view, a badge of honor for standing up to Beijing’s narrative campaigns. Admiral Trinidad then talks about espionage, revealing how Chinese intelligence handlers recruited young Filipino defense workers via social media to gather information specifically about troops at Second Thomas Shoal and the resupply missions, and why he is urging Congress to replace the Philippines’ 1941-era anti-espionage law and pass new legislation on foreign malign influence. Trinidad closes with a message to Chinese officials he says he knows will be listening: their reaction to Philippine transparency shows exactly where their vulnerabilities lie. He finally announces that he is now days away from retirement from his active duty service in the Philippine Navy - but intends to keep speaking out about the West Philippine Sea. 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E142

17 abr 2026

46:58

Why Should We Care if China is Building its Biggest Island Yet in the South China Sea? | with Greg Poling

At the start of 2025, Antelope Reef was little more than a sandbar in the Paracel Islands. Months later, it's on track to become China's largest artificial island in the South China Sea. In this episode, we sit down with Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at CSIS and author of On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea, to unpack what China is building, why it's building it now, and what it means for the region – and especially Vietnam. Greg walks us through the latest satellite imagery, explains why the scale and speed of construction caught even seasoned analysts off guard, and lays out the military implications of a potential new airstrip in the western Paracels – the first in an area where Vietnamese fishermen have operated for generations. We explore why both China and Vietnam claim the Paracel Islands, how Vietnam’s own massive island-building campaign in the Spratly Islands complicates the narrative, and why Hanoi’s response to Antelope Reef has been surprisingly restrained. The conversation turns to the broader geopolitical landscape: Vietnam’s strategic rebalancing between Washington and Beijing, the Philippines’ recalibration during its ASEAN chairmanship, and whether a South China Sea Code of Conduct can ever be more than symbolic. With the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 Hague arbitral ruling approaching in July, we assess whether it has been a net positive or negative for the Philippines and the rules-based order. We also discuss middle-power alignment, the expanding Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, and what countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia should and shouldn’t do in response. Whether you follow South China Sea tensions closely or are just trying to understand why a reef you’ve never heard of will soon be ready to receive combat aircraft and navy destroyers, this episode connects the dots between island-building, international law, great power competition and the future of the Indo-Pacific. 👉 Follow Greg Poling on LinkedIn 👉 Follow the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative on X (@AsiaMTI) and Facebook 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E141

10 abr 2026

50:36

Why Should We Care About America’s Extraordinary Rescue Mission in Iran? | with Ioannis Koskinas and Joe Felter

The U.S. military just pulled off one of the most dramatic combat search and rescue missions in history, sending forces deep into Iran to recover the crew of a downed F‑15E Strike Eagle fighter. Aircraft were lost, firefights erupted, and both airmen came home alive. The last time America attempted something this ambitious inside Iran was Operation Eagle Claw in 1980 - and that ended in disaster. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with two retired special operations colonels: Ioannis Koskinas (Air Force Special Operations, CEO of The Hoplite Group, former senior advisor to Generals McChrystal and Schwartz) and Joe Felter (Army Special Forces, Director of Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense). As Felter puts it: no other country could have pulled this off, and no other country would have tried. The conversation starts with the rescue: how it was planned in under 48 hours, how and why aircraft were lost at a forward staging site deep in Iran, and what separates this outcome from the 1980 failure. It then pivots to the broader war: where the conflict with Iran is headed, the risk of Gulf state escalation, and why both guests, drawing on painful experience from Afghanistan’s collapse, warn against assuming tactical brilliance equals strategic victory. The episode closes with the Indo‑Pacific: what allies are thinking as American attention and resources once again pour into the Middle East, and whether the U.S. can fight in the Gulf without undermining its ability to deter China. 👉 Follow Ioannis Koskinas and The Hoplite Group on LinkedIn 👉 Follow Joe Felter and the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation on LinkedIn 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E140

8 abr 2026

1:01:47

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