Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

por Ray Powell & Jim Carouso

Gobierno Comentarios de noticias

Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Japan Alliance?

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel joins Jim and Ray for 2025's inaugural episode, in which he discusses why the alliance between the U.S. and Japan is critical to the security of both nations and of a vital but volatile region. In his characteristically forthright style, he explains how the Japan alliance strengthens America's strategic position, especially as it has been increasing its investments in its own defense. Multilateral cooperation among allies--an alliance "latticework--is, he says, an asymmetric advantage for the U.S. to offset an increasingly aggressive but still largely isolated China. Turning to economic issues, the ambassador asserts that trade imbalances don't tell the whole story, and that Japan is a major investor in the U.S. economy. Moreover, he makes the case that deterring China can't be seen solely in military terms but must consider economic statecraft as a key element of strategic power. Ambassador Emanuel talks about the evolution and impact of 2024's two major trilateral summits--one between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the other between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines. He explains that Japan has had an important influence on building regional resilience against coercion and aggression through its defense and economic cooperation programs. Finally, he explains how he used social media to influence the conversation in East Asia, supporting Japan while calling out China for its malign actions and misleading messages.

Special Year-End Episode: Why Should We Care About 2024 in the Indo-Pacific?

In this special year-end edition of the podcast, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on most significant developments in the Indo-Pacific region throughout 2024 including the economic challenges faced by China amidst the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping, and how concern over its increasing military power and aggression is strengthening the U.S. network of alliances. They also discuss the prospects for a grand U.S.-China deal in the upcoming Trump administration. They talk about the most surprising developments of 2024, including the recent political upheaval in South Korea and the dramatic confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. They then review some of their favorite, most-viewed/most-heard, and most underrated episodes of the 2024, and give their Indo-Pacific "Person of the Year" nominees: Jim picked China's President Xi Jinping, while Ray chose the recently impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Philippine President Ferdinand "BongBong" Marcos, Jr. They discuss surprises that may lie in wait for 2025, and what impact emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons will have on the Indo-Pacific order. Finally, they talk about what they’ve learned and most enjoyed in their first 9 months of podcasting. E-mail us at indopacificpodcast@gmail.com with your questions and comments! We are pleased to announce the support of our new sponsor, BowerGroupAsia (BGA), a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific. BGA applies unmatched expertise and experience to help clients navigate the world’s most complex and dynamic markets.

Why Should We Care if Companies are Forced to Choose Between the U.S. and China?

Ray and Jim welcome Isaac Stone Fish to discuss why he believes companies that want to do business with China are being compelled to make hard choices due to the increasingly fraught relationship with the U.S. and the West. Isaac explains how the ongoing economic decoupling with China has been driven in large part by Beijing’s own policies, and that this process has been accelerated since the COVID-19 outbreak. He asserts that U.S. political and business elites, in their enthusiasm for what China might have been, have instead strengthened its authoritarian model to the detriment of the West. Isaac urges companies to understand the risks inherent in their exposure to China’s market, and explains some of the economic challenges Beijing faces moving forward. He also warns that conflict is a real possibility that must be factored in.

Why Should We Care About the Changing Indo-Pacific Business Environment?

Jim and Ray welcome McKinsey & Company’s Global Director of Geopolitics Ziad Haider to discuss how businesses are navigating the evolving risks and opportunities of today’s Indo-Pacific business environment. Ziad asserts that the region is the engine of the global economy which is both economically vibrant but also highly volatile. Ziad discusses the role of India and Southeast Asia as rising global economic power, and of course, the increasingly complex challenge of operating in China amidst its growing regulatory and geopolitical hazards. He emphasizes the need for companies to be prepared to adapt as circumstances can change quickly, as evidenced by recent supply chains disruptions and black-swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. y1JCFurOEAh1qKEfwIO3

Why Should We Care About Indonesia's Prabowo Era?

Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia’s Managing Director for Indonesia Doug Ramage to look at the country’s economic and geopolitical position as it moves on from a decade under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to new President Prabowo Subianto. They consider Indonesia’s position as a rising power with a $1 trillion economy, a G20 membership and leadership position within the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations. Doug credits the Jokowi presidency for championing a stable political and investment climate, and explains why he believes that Prabowo is seeking continuity while also promoting social development. He explains that Prabowo will face a rising imperative to balance Jakarta’s relationships with Washington DC and Beijing in the face of rising great-power competition. He will seek to maintain Indonesia’s strong regional position and continue to promote ASEAN-centrality, while also continuing to promote its role as a leader in the Muslim world. Doug unpacks the strains created by the twin impulses toward economic growth and trade protectionism, and how these may impact the former defense minister’s military modernization plans and the slow-moving effort to relocate the capital city.

Why Should We Care About what the Pacific Islands Think?

Jim and Ray welcome Suzanne Vares-Lum, retired U.S. Army Major General, outgoing President of the East-West Center and Director-designate of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Together they explore the geopolitical significance of the geographically vast but sparsely populated Pacific Islands region. They discuss how these small island nations have found themselves in the midst of the great-power competition between the U.S. and China, while many have also become unlikely players in the cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. At the same time, the concerns that preoccupy these nations at international gatherings such as the Pacific Islands Forum include illegal fishing and climate change. Suzy explains how the U.S. has been renewing its commitment to many of these countries through education and leadership programs, as well as opening new embassies and funding infrastructure projects. To close, Ray tells the story of when he dispatched a special forces officer to rescue a stuffed animal.

Why Should We Care About What the Hell Just Happened in South Korea?

In this "emergency" episode, Ray and Jim welcome retired South Korean Lieutenant General Chun In-Bum back to help explain the extraordinary events of December 3rd–President Yoon Suk Yul’s shocking declaration of martial law, its unanimous rejection by the parliament, and its subsequent repeal by Yoon. General Chun talks about the ethical and legal dilemma faced by South Korean military personnel, crediting their professionalism and restraint for averting violence. He also discusses South Korea’s history with martial law and how the ever-present threat of North Korean aggression colors that landscape. The conversation then turns to what is likely to happen next to President Yoon and his administration, and how a potential presidential succession might unfold should he be impeached or resign from office. General Chun laments the impact Yoon’s actions and their aftermath is likely to have on South Korea’s geopolitical situation, with special emphasis on how it will affect recent positive trends with Japan relations during Yoon’s tenure. To close, Jim and Ray compare this experience with others they’ve encountered during their long diplomatic and military careers, and also discuss how authoritarian regimes are likely to exploit the chaos in Seoul.

Why Should We Care About the Kuomintang, Taiwan's Opposition Party?

Ray and Jim welcome Victor Chin, the official representative of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, to discuss Taiwan’s political landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as its primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic People’s Party (DPP). They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security. Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions until democracy can be the force that unifies China. This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism. To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.”

Why Should We Care Whether China can be Deterred?

Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan. The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime. Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.

Why Should the Philippines Care About Trump 2.0?

Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations. The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements. The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia. Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations. The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast. Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.

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