Episode Summary Are we in a recession right now? John can’t tell you—and neither can any other economist. In this episode, John and Jane break down the four phases of the business cycle, explain why lagging indicators like unemployment make recoveries feel completely invisible, and reveal the think-tank committee that officially dates Canadian recessions long after they are over. They also explore the highly cyclical nature of Canada's stock market and share a crucial warning on why trying to use the business cycle as a market-timing tool is a surefire way to lock in permanent losses.

Key Concepts

• The Four Phases: The economy doesn't grow smoothly; it rotates through expansion (output and confidence rising), peak (growth decelerating, capacity st ...