Historical and archaeological research reveals that the "collapse" of ancient civilizations was rarely a single, sudden catastrophe, but rather a complex process driven by the intersection of environmental stress, societal overextension, and structural vulnerabilities.

The Burden of Societal Complexity According to anthropologist Joseph Tainter, societies act as problem-solving organizations that respond to challenges by increasing their sociopolitical complexity. However, this strategy eventually yields diminishing marginal returns. As bureaucracies expand, infrastructures grow, and resource management becomes more costly, societies lose the energetic reserves needed to handle major crises. This makes them highly vulnerable to collapse, which Tainter defines as a rapid, significant loss of sociopolitical complexity.

Climate Change an ...