There was a fighter jet flying overhead, so pardon the sound when you hear it.

In futures thinking, I look at politics at two levels: the global geopolitics, and also domestic politics. This one focuses on global geopolitics.

I go through the basics - how countries seek security, and try to find offshore balancers as a way to bargain with other powers.

How China's Belt and Road Initiative - viewed simplistically, is a way to get round being surrounded by pro-American neighbours. Central Asia-Middle East route as a way to get past the US Navy dominated Indian Ocean and Malacca Straits.

How countries in Southeast Asia find a balance between US and China.

How EU is a global player though less so on security matters.

How middle powers such as Japan, India, Russia, the UK also play a role.

The domestic angle i ...